Epicentre of Escalation: Panth-Punjab and the Unfolding Indo-Pak Conflict

South Asia is hurtling towards a crisis that will gravely impact the Panth and Punjab.

Video footage from Akalian village in Bathinda, Punjab shows the crash site of a downed Indian jet.

Punjab stands in the eye of a dangerous geopolitical storm. India’s military strikes on Pakistani soil and its unprecedented unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, signals that South Asia is hurtling towards a crisis that will gravely impact the Panth and Punjab. Today’s events are not distant border skirmishes or mere diplomatic posturing—they directly implicate our land, our waters, and our people.

India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty—a move Pakistan explicitly warned would constitute an act of war—has not only heightened the immediate risk of escalation but is symptomatic of India’s broader strategic objective to weaponize natural resources. Reports of reduced flows in the Chenab River confirm that this policy could spell ecological and economic catastrophe, directly affecting Punjab, whose own waters have long been forcibly diverted by Delhi for India's broader nation-building projects.

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Earlier today, India announced it attacked three different locations which it describes as "terrorist infrastructure." Pakistani sources are accusing India of attacking civilian targets and reporting one child has died with several others injured. On the other hand, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif of the Pakistani Army told CNN that Pakistan has retaliated and downed multiple Indian jets, including one in Bathinda which obviously demonstrates the impacts and centrality of Punjab in any ensuing conflict. Local sources have reported that the plane fell near Akalian village and the pilot was killed in the crash although we are waiting on further details. Sources report that perhaps five Indian jets have been downed by Pakistan.

Fire crews in Akalian respond to the plane crash in Bathinda district.

Critically, all these escalations revolve around Punjab. Border districts like Fazilka, Ferozepur, Amritsar, Gurdaspur are frontline zones, situated within immediate artillery and missile range. Military cantonments in Jalandhar, Bathinda, and Pathankot have already been activated, transforming Punjab into a militarized zone characterized by increased civilian surveillance and emergency security measures. This militarization directly threatens Punjab's already strained agricultural sector, as critical water infrastructure linked to the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers risks becoming bargaining chips or collateral damage.

Historically, Delhi has consistently treated Punjab as a colony to be dominated and exploited to serve Indian national security and food security objectives. Now, under the current circumstances, Punjab holds the key to stability within the Indian empire and the survival of the current structure. Not only is Punjab the only viable route to trade and transport goods by land through Central Asia, it is a key logistical point for the military, and also houses a fundamental challenge to the Indian state itself.

This militarization and resource control serve a dual purpose for Delhi. Beyond pressuring Islamabad, India's BJP-led government can seek domestic consolidation amidst economic struggles and international scrutiny over its transnational repression. The crisis can conveniently position Sikh dissent as an "internal threat," portraying pro-Khalistan activists as proxies of Pakistani interests in a renewed bid to clamp down on Sikh dissent.

Simultaneously, global geopolitical tensions between the United States and China—highlighted by strategic projects like the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—further complicate the regional context. Conflict in Kashmir would directly disrupt these economic projects, underlining that the stakes extend far beyond local or national interests.

As the global order shifts towards a multipolar system where the US is no longer the unchallenged hegemon, NATO-aligned countries increasingly seek to develop stronger ties and relations with the Indian establishment in order to contain the strategic influence of China while simultaneously accessing India’s massive market.

While some shifts towards India are tied to policy imperatives to counter China’s rising influence in the region and beyond, there are also other important economic considerations. With the recognized significance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor_, and the broader “Belt and Road Initiative” which would reroute the global trade system and fulcrums of global power—in competition with Western-backed visions of the “Indo-Pacific”—the Panth and Punjab are now centre stage as key stakeholders in global politics. This simultaneously presents us with opportunities as well as various threats.

India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is not just diplomatic theatre—it is a strategic escalation, weaponizing water against Pakistan, which Pakistan has explicitly warned would be considered an act of war. Al Jazeera is reporting that the Jhenab river has already had its flows reduced which could be catastrophic and present an existential crisis for Pakistan. India has been making efforts over the past several years to renegotiate the terms of the Treaty, and seems to be taking advantage of this incident to do so.