Navigating the Storm: Panth-Punjab and the Future of South Asia
As global and regional tensions escalate, it is critical for Sikhs to proactively and independently assert our own agency and power rooted in Sikh adarsh (ideals).
Prabjot Singh | @panthpunjab | @khalistancentre
The conflict between India and Pakistan in recent weeks once again demonstrated the centrality of the Panth and Punjab in the eye of an unfolding geopolitical storm. With Punjab at the nexus of an increasingly unstable region with multiple faultlines in our immediate vicinity, it is imperative that we recognize the gravity of our circumstances and proactively respond as an active stakeholder in the future of our homeland.
The recent attacks exchanged by India and Pakistan–and the role of various world powers in the background–illustrate yet again that our horizon offers us a number of opportunities as well as threats. No outcomes are guaranteed. Our aspirations must be built and realized by our own bal (strength), mehnat (labour) and kurbani (sacrifice).
In the immediate aftermath, the conflict offers us a number of key lessons that must comprehensively inform the basis of our analysis and strategy going forward–whether thinking of political strategies for Panthic factions and the SGPC in Punjab, the relationships between Sikh sangat and other communities across South Asia, or the political engagements of Sikhs throughout the diaspora. As a global panth in the midst of conflict, no facets of our existence operate in a silo. We must leverage every form of power we can harness while zealously guarding every institution in our sociopolitical ecosystem from external influence.
Global and Regional Volatility: A New Era of Uncertainty
The Panth and Punjab are embedded at the centre of a region whose status quo has become incredibly fragile due to the decay of both domestic and international political institutions, as well as the strategic aspirations of various global powers in the region. Recent upheavals in South Asia—particularly in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan—highlight a broader destabilization of global order, further evidenced by the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
The post-WWII global order, underpinned by the hegemony of the US, erected various international institutions which bolstered Western domination of the world through the transformation of direct colonialism into a refashioned mode of imperialism. These institutions, which once served to restrict drastic changes in the world and contain extreme volatility, gradually began to lose their credibility and efficacy over the past twenty years alongside the material decline of US power. This is most clearly seen in the protracted conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, where the UN General Assembly, UN Security Council, and International Court of Justice have failed miserably to stop the genocide against the Palestinian people or bring the Ukraine war to an end.
On the domestic front, this has also translated into increased angst or discontent across both the so-called “Global North” and “Global South” as massive swathes of the population who have been excluded from power are increasingly disillusioned with their domestic institutions fashioned by colonial legacies, the elites who have exploited their positions to amass personal wealth and power, and the international institutions that have exacerbated global inequality and intersecting axes of structural oppression.
As we move into this period of discontent and multipolarity, global powers operate in an increasingly competitive atmosphere without a common set of rules or guardrails, dramatically expanding the scope of instability, conflict and political upheavals–restructuring individual countries or larger regions in their entirety. Such conditions create unprecedented possibilities—compounded by the risks posed by future pandemics, ecological disasters, political collapse, and military conflicts.
This unpredictability requires us to confidently grasp the strategic faultlines amongst various powers in our region in order to better understand events around us and anticipate the threats and opportunities on our horizon.
South Asia: the “Geopolitical Centre of Gravity for the 21st Century”
“As the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point. Over the last 10 years, we have allocated immense resources to those two theaters… One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment–diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise–in the Asia-Pacific Region… Stretching from the Indian subcontinent to the western shores of the Americas, the region spans two oceans–the Pacific and the Indian–that are increasingly linked by shipping and strategy.”
-Hilary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century” (November 2011), Foreign Policy
“[The Indo-Pacific] is a vast and critical region that’s not just a geographic space. It is the geopolitical centre of gravity for the 21st century.”
-Tulsi Gabbard, Raisina Dialogue 2025 (March 2025)
Although we’re seeing the sparks of outright conflict today in 2025, the strategic canvas of the region has been in preparation for years. As early as 2011, the US administration under Barack Obama made overt and explicit comments about “pivoting” US foreign policy to Asia. The subtext of this–and what was not explicitly stated–is that the US was concerned about China’s rise and wanted to take active steps to counter or contain China’s regional and global influence. Despite the drastic shifts and changes over the years and under Donald Trump’s administration, his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, made it very clear that this strategic pivot is still in full swing.
As a result, South Asia has long been identified as a critical and decisive battleground for global powers, particularly given the importance of India to Western designs to counter China. This has manifested clearly through competing frameworks for the region: China's Belt & Road Initiative and the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy. Given their sensitive locations, both frameworks place Pakistani and Indian Punjab, along with Kashmir, as important sites within both strategies.
In other words, the tension and competition between the US (and its Western allies) and China can easily be superimposed onto the Indo-Pak conflict. This subtext was on physical display as Pakistan successfully shot down multiple French-made Rafale jets using advanced Chinese military technology—a symbolic blow to Western military supremacy and India's assumed dominance in the region.
Punjab is clearly an important strategic node within this overall picture and therefore remains highly susceptible to ongoing tensions and strategic power struggles not only between India and Pakistan, but larger global powers as well. This is why it is imperative that we approach seemingly minor or disconnected issues such as Punjab’s water or agrarian crisis, or the leadership crisis of Sikh factions, within this holistic context. No part of our social or political life remains immune from these calculations, forces, or influences.
Even a cursory look at history or military strategy clearly teaches us that powers will invest heavily into influencing public perception, orchestrating the rise of favourable leadership, and manipulating the public policy of any faction that exercises any degree of sway within a decisive territory or amongst an influential community. If India can engage in electoral interference in Canada to the degree that it has, no one should have any doubts that it has a stake and role in fragmenting and undermining Sikh leadership in Punjab and the diaspora as well. Given the political capacity and history of the Panth in the region, India–and other powers–will keep a keen eye on internal developments within Sikh spaces.
Punjab: Ground Zero for Discursive and Military Conflict
Punjab's geographic location obviously places it at the heart of Indo-Pakistani tensions. Located on the faultlines between these rival nations, bordering the volatile region of Kashmir, and not far from Ladakh, Punjab is not only a crucial supply line for Indian military logistics and strategic operations–it will be a central battlefield. This was clearly seen in the barrage of missiles and drones fired by both India and Pakistan, but also in the media narratives of both sides–clearly appealing to Sikh sentiments by invoking the security of itihaasik (historic) gurdware.
While India tried to accuse Pakistan of firing at Sikh gurdware to stoke Indian nationalism, Pakistan’s senior leadership repeatedly and clearly communicated that it was not trying to target Sikhs. Pakistan’s Information Minister, even publicly referred to India’s transnational assassination program and targeting of Sikh leadership on various international platforms. These rhetorical appeals from both sides should not fall on deaf ears, but make it unequivocally clear that both powers see Sikhs as an independent force in the region–with its own interests and agency. It is crucial that we recognize the significance of this and act accordingly.
In his public address several days ago, Modi clearly outlined India’s position that the conflict is not over, it is simply “paused.” The writing on the wall is clear, that this conflict will continue to simmer and inevitably reignite in the foreseeable future. India's deployment of Russian S-400 missile defense systems and air bases across Punjab will ensure that our region is pulled deeper into a conflict that fundamentally is not its own.These actions exemplify India’s persistent exploitation of Punjab for its imperialist aspirations, placing the burden of conflict squarely on our families and homes.
This overall scenario should reinforce the urgent necessity for Sikhs to assert our own strategic interests, increase our independent capacity across multiple spheres, and ultimately resist attempts to manipulate Punjab as merely a frontline or pawn in broader geopolitical games.
Understanding these complex dynamics is vital for our survival and progress. As global and regional tensions escalate, it is critical for Sikhs to proactively and independently assert our own agency and power rooted in Sikh adarsh (ideals). Punjab and the Sikh Panth must not become passive observers or helpless victims of conflicts shaped by external forces. Instead, this moment demands strategic clarity and determined action to rejuvenate our sovereign capacity to navigate—and ultimately leverage—the unfolding geopolitical storm toward our goal of establishing halemi raj, Khalistan.